Fractional order COVID 19 pandemic model in Morocco: Dynamical analysis and Numerical simulation

Elsayed, Ahmed Mohammed; Hanafy, Ibrahim Mohammed; Arafa, Anas Ahmed; Gouda, Mohammed Ibraheem

doi:10.21608/ajbas.2021.99552.1071

Fractional order COVID 19 pandemic model in Morocco: Dynamical analysis and Numerical simulation

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ professor pure mathematics,Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science,Alexandria university, Alexandria, Egypt

² professor pure mathematics ,Port said University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics, Egypt.

³ associate Professor,Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences and Arts, Methnab, Qassim University, P.O. Box 931, Buridah, 51931, Methnab, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

⁴ assistant lecturer ,mathematics and computer science , faculty of science , port said university

10.21608/ajbas.2021.99552.1071

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce fractional order COVID-19 model in Morocco. We analyse model by calculating reproductive ratio R_0,finding free disease equilibrium point and studying local and global stability of free disease equilibrium point E_0.to show the advantages of fractional order model ,we simulate model by using Adams-type predictor-corrector method and compare our results to clinical data which obtained from morocco cases from 18 march 2020 to 5 April 2020 . from figures, we can easily see that data from fractional order is better than data obtained by integer order model according to the comparison with clinical data.
non-local fractional order is big advantage in disease modelling, we can choose more appropriate fractional order according to comparison with clinical data. Finally ,we want to mention that we can’t study endemic equilibrium point by local and global stability because we study the spread of disease with unstable of number of infected individuals

Keywords